此文是一篇人民币论文范文,人民币相关论文范文参考文献,与人民币升值对中美贸易差额影响的实证相关在职研究生毕业论文。适合不知如何写人民币及数据及月度方面的国际贸易专业大学硕士和本科毕业论文以及人民币类开题报告范文和职称论文的作为写作参考文献资料下载。
摘 要：近年来,人民币升值影响了全球经济的神经.实证研究人民币是否被低估,并进行了详细的分析是人民币问题影响到美国经济衰退.为了最大化研究人民币升值的后果,我们更使用月度数据而不是年度数据.考虑到中国和美国的实际情况,我们还利用VAR模型检验了人民币升值的迹象,发现在长期两者不存在任何因果关系.
关 键 词 ：中美贸易；人民币升值；VAR
中图分类号：F74 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1673-291X（2013）13-0233-03
一、Introduction
Two years ago,the US Senate passed “Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011”,the debate about exchange rate between China and US bees hot again.In recent years,the United States frequently puts pressure on China by the exchange rate issue.Since a series of currencies measures were implemented from 2005,the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate decreased from 8.27 to 6.29,and pushed up the RMB still further.They argue that the US in Sino-US trade deficit may be reduced if the RMB appreciate,so they force the RMB to appreciate.This article would not only
人民币相关论文范文参考文献
二、The literature review
In the 1930s,Abba Lerner states that if the current account is initially zero,a real currency depreciation causes a current account surplus if the sum of the relative price elasticities of export and import demand exceeds 1.If the current account is not zero initially,the condition bees substantially more plex,then the external devaluation of the national currency will certainly be able to improve its trade balance of payments,which is the famous “Marshall-Lerner condition”.After the 1980s,economists increasingly note the problem of exchange rate pass-through,forming the theory of inplete exchange rate pass-through.As well as the changes in a national ine,currency devaluation can improve the trade balance conditions,and devaluation caused more than national ine to increase exports,which is called Lawson - Metzler effect.If we do not take into account the time lag of moary depreciation effect,due to exchange rate movements,the change in financial asset prices can be pleted in an instant.But the exchange rate shocks may affect the economy with some lags.So when the exchange rate changes,the change in trade and national ine is relatively slow,so the devaluation of the currency could lead to trade balance deteriorate first and gradually improve subsequently,which is known as the J-curve effect.
In the view of academic circle in the USA,with the expansion of China’s current account balance of payments surplus in 2005,Joseph Stieglitz,Robert Mundell,Stephen Roach and Ronald McKinnon firmly opposed to the appreciation of the RMB,but after2005,these scholars change their points.Although these scholars do not believe that a substantial appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the development of Sino-US economic and in varying degrees,they recognized the independent and progressive RMB appreciation. From the point of Chinese scholars,Lin Yifu（2007）,Li Yang （2005）,Fan Gang,Yi Gang,Cheng Side and He Liping were tend to support the policy of RMB exchange rate is relatively stable,while Yu Yongding（2003）,He Fan and Hu Zuliu argued that the yuan should be revalued.
三、Empirical research
This paper selects monthly data of Sino-US trade balance and the exchange rate of USD to RMB,from January 2007 to January 2013.Because of seasonal fluctuations in trade balance,firstly,carry out X-12 seasonal adjustment to the data,secondly,analyse data in the use of unit root test,cointegration analysis,and Granger test.The analysis find out the impact on Sino-US trade,exerted by the exchange rate.The results show causal relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance is not clear,and trade balance have an affect on the exchange rate,but not obvious.The exchange rate exert a great influence on trade balance,however,it can not decide the size of trade balance between two countries totally,there is no necessary connection between them.
| 有关论文范文主题研究: | 人民币类论文范文 | 大学生适用: | 大学毕业论文、本科论文 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 相关参考文献下载数量: | 77 | 写作解决问题: | 写作资料 |
| 毕业论文开题报告: | 论文提纲、论文总结 | 职称论文适用: | 期刊目录、初级职称 |
| 所属大学生专业类别: | 写作资料 | 论文题目推荐度: | 免费选题 |
The data of the Sino-US trade balance es from the official website of China Customs,and the data of the exchange rate is from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange,the two Chinese official data is strongly persuasive.For analysising and processing data,Y is the logarithm of the Sino-US trade balance,that is lnnx,X is the logarithm of the exchange rate of dollar against the RMB,that is lne.
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1.ADF stationary sequence inspection
Classic regression model is the smooth variable based on the non-stationary variables,using the classical regression model may appear spurious regression and many other issues.Therefore,the economic variables stationary test is necessary.As we can see from the figure 1,The null is not significant at the 1%,5% and10% level,the value of t is less than the statistical values,passing the test.Although the original time sequence of the variables are non-stationary series,the corresponding first-order differential sequence pass the 5% significance level test,and individual variables are integrated of order one sequence.Because of the regular use of the 5% level,we also analyze at a 5% level in order to be calculated later consistent.
2.Least squares method
The least squares method to test whether there is a linear relationship between the Sino-US trade balance and the exchange rate.If there is a linear relationship,the relationship between the two is apparent.The actual inspection,we found that the R-value only 0.000656,even neglecting the possible linear correlation of D（x） and D（Y）.That is to say,a linear relationship does not exist between the Sino-US trade balance and the exchange rate. 3.Granger causality test
In the first test,the conitant probability P 等于 0.9941,it cannot reject the null hypothesis of D（X） is not D（Y） Granger cause,and in the confidence level of 95%,it reject to made Type I error is 0.0059.So that D（X） is not D（Y） Granger causes,that is,the exchange rate is not the causes of the Sino-US trade balance.
In the second test,the conitant probability P 等于 0.9812,D（Y） is not D（X）Granger cause that can not reject the null hypothesis.In the confidence level of 95%,it is not that D（Y）Granger causes D（X）,namely Sino-US trade balance is not the exchange rate Granger causes.
四、The conclusion
Firstly,there is no stable equilibrium relationship between the Sino-US trade balance and the RMB exchange rate in the long term.
Secondly,there is no causal relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the Sino-US trade balance.So,it is impossible to change the Sino-US trade deficit,using the adjustment of RMB exchange rate.Because of the strong plementarity in Sino-US trade,exchange rate has limit affect on the balance of trade between the two countries.
Finally,the Sino-US trade balance did not show significant J-curve effect,which means that there isn’t time lag effect of the exchange rate on bilateral trade balance.The conclusion of the exchange rate on the trade balance do not play an important role has been confirmed once again.Because of the RMB exchange rate is not the bilateral trade balance of payments reasons,and thus through the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate can not solve the problems of the current balance of trade between China and USA.As trade between China and the United States,there was not only plement
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